Emission trends under the Effort Sharing legislation: An analysis of sectoral trends covered by the Effort Sharing legislation

Eionet Report — ETC/ACM 2018/11

The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, Decision No 406/2009) and the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR, Regulation (EU) 2018/842) establish national targets for EU Member States (MS). The ESR focusses on those emissions that are not covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and those that do not relate to Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). Effort Sharing emissions contribute to about 60 % of the EU-28 GHG emissions in 2016. Historic trends of Effort Sharing emissions are presented by sector, comparing changes in Effort Sharing emissions from 2005 to 2017 in all EU-MS.

Six MS with higher emissions than their annual ESD targets in 2016 have been analysed in more detail. For these MS an analysis of historic and future trends of Effort Sharing emissions has been conducted, comparing them with trends of ETS emissions and national Annual Emission Allowances (AEA) and identifying drivers for the explanation of sectoral trends. It becomes obvious that in many MS latest emission trends are showing increasing emissions. While emissions in the transport sector are the most important ones on EU-level, the importance of sectors and their emission trends are partly different on MS level. Emission sources and related drivers are divers and specific to MS. One outcome of the analysis of selected MS is that in all these MS emissions of the 'industry and other' sector increased between 2005 and 2017. This sector aggregates Effort Sharing emissions of energy supply, manufacturing, industrial processes and product use, i.e. all emission source categories which are mainly covered by the EU ETS.

The analysis visualizes that additional polices and measures are needed to reduce Effort Sharing emissions to ensure that the EU gets on track to achieve the target of a reduction of 21 % of Effort Sharing emissions until 2030.

The report was prepared on behalf of the European Environment Agency, as partner of the European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate change Mitigation.