CDM supply potential for emission reductions up to the end of 2020

The transition of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) issued under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) for use by Parties towards their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is a key outstanding issue for Article 6 negotiations at the UNFCCC. To inform the ongoing negotiations, we set out estimates of the potential CER supply by two groups of modelling teams, from research institutes in Japan and Germany. This paper presents an updated analysis of the potential supply of CERs issued for emission reductions occurring in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2020 based on a selection of possible restrictions for their transition.

This paper is based on analytical work previously conducted by NewClimate Institute, Öko-Institut, Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting Co., Ltd., and IGES. The paper itself is a cooperation between these Japanese and German research institutes. The preparation of this paper was also supported by  the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MOEJ), the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) and the German Environment Agency (UBA) with the objective of informing ongoing negotiations related to Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The analysis and results in this paper represent the opinion of the authors and are not necessarily representative of any position of the funders.

The contribution by NewClimate Institute and Öko-Institut to this paper was commissioned by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the BMU.