Report prepared for Transport & Environment

Targets for the non-ETS sectors in 2040 and 2050

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The paper explores different options to calculate a target for the Effort Sharing sectors in 2050 which could be considered in line with the Paris Agreement and with the agreed EU’s overall target range. While there is no objective best option there are a few constraints and considerations for each option:

To remain in line with most global emission pathways the EU’s 2040 emissions would need to be below a mere interpolation between the 2030 and 2050 targets.

The EU’s agreed 2050 targets are in line with global pathways which rely (i) on large scale negative emissions in the second half of the century to compensate exceeding the permissible budget before and (ii) without taking into account historic responsibilities for climate change.

Pathways which do not rely on negative emission would require net zero emissions as of 2050 at the latest.

Pathways which are based on equal cumulative per capita emissions for the period 1990- 2050 would require massive negative emissions in the EU before 2040.

To reflect the precautionary principle and the polluter pays principle emissions in 2050 should at least be at the lower range of the EU target, i.e. 95% below 1990. For the ESR this also translates to a reduction of at least 95% below 2005 levels or no more than 170 Mt CO2eq.