The Vision Scenario for the European Union

2017 Update for the EU-28

Global climate change, finite fossil and nuclear resources and the vulnerability of economies and consumers to increasing and volatile prices of fossil energies are the challenges which will determine energy and climate policies for the next decades.

An analysis of the global CO2 emissions budget and different approaches to derive a fair share for the EU leads to a CO2 emissions budget of 61.5 billion metric tons from 2015 onwards that is consistent with the global effort to keep the increase of the global average temperature to below 2°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

The Vision Scenario represents a pathway which consistently combines short- and medium-term objectives with long-term objectives. Furthermore it is in line with an EU greenhouse gas emission budget that is consistent with a 2°C limit on the increase in global temperature. It is the first comprehensive scenario analysis for the European Union that addresses both the (top-down) perspective of a 2°C-compatible CO2 emission budget and how the related emission trajectories could be achieved from a bottom-up perspective.