GHG Projections: Further development of the methodologies and implementation of the European Governance Regulation and the Federal Climate Change Act in the 2023 Projection Report ("Policy Scenarios XI")

Within the framework of the international and European climate protection regime, projections for greenhouse gas emissions must be submitted every two years by the participating countries or member states, which comply with a specified reporting format. The aim of the project is to support the German government in the preparation of the 2023 projection report. The modelling focuses on the so-called "With-Measures Scenario" (MMS), which takes into account the measures that have already been implemented as well as those that have been officially adopted, and the "With-Additional-Measures Scenario" (MWMS), which includes further firmly planned instruments that have not yet been adopted. The modelling of the greenhouse gas projections of the two scenarios also includes an assessment of the instruments and measures considered in terms of their emission reduction contribution. Furthermore, the project supports the German government in the preparation of the projections 2024, for which the MMS and MWMS are updated.

In addition, i

n the project, a socio-economic impact assessment is carried out. For this purpose, the investment needs and energy and operating cost savings from the sector models are combined and evaluated in a system cost analysis with regard to the net effects. Based on this, a macro-economic analysis is carried out to determine the effects on GDP, gross value added and labour demand. In addition, a labour market analysis is carried out with regard to the demand for skilled workers. Furthermore, distributional effects and social aspects are evaluated on the basis of a microsimulation and example household analysis.


More information about the project

Status of project

Project is ongoing

Project manager

Project staff

Wolfram Jörß
Senior Researcher / Head of Carbon Accounting subdivision Energy & Climate
Alexander Zerrahn

Funded by

German Environment Agency (UBA)

Project partners

Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies GmbH (IREES)
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI)