Climate protection scenarios 2050: Modelling, analysis and comparison of target scenarios

The German greenhouse gas mitigation targets are laid down in the Federal Climate Change Act (as of August 2021) which was amended in June 2021. In the amended Act, the German greenhouse gas mititgation target is increased from minus 55% to minus 65% for the year 2030 as compared to 1990. By 2040, greenhouse gases must be reduced by 88%, and by 2045 greenhouse gas neutrality is to be achieved. Moreover, annual emission volumes are laid down in individual sectors for the years until 2030. Furthermore, for the first time a binding target for natural sinks, i.e. carbon removals by e.g. forests or peatlands, was defined. Apart from the provisions of the Federal Constitutional Court, Germany is the first EU Member State to implement the new European climate targets, which had been decided upon in the previous year under the German EU Presidency, through these significantly more ambitious targets.

A strategy for achieving these targets needs to provide appropriate incentives and framework conditions. This includes further developing the existing mix of regulatory, fiscal, economic and accompanying instruments. Respective measures face the challenge that they must be socially just, economically and ecologically sustainable and acceptable to society. Within the project, various climate protection scenarios are developed that differ in the composition of policy measures included. Their impact in terms of achieving climate targets as well as their economic, social and fiscal effects are investigated.