Electric vehicles only contribute to climate protection with additional renewable electricity production
Up to six million electric vehicles could be on Germany’s roads in 2030. If these vehicles use additional electricity produced from renewable sources, they are emission-free and can make a contribution to climate protection. Oeko-Institut came to this conclusion having analysed the market potential of electrically driven cars and their impacts on electricity demand and climate protection. The “OPTUM – Maximising the reduction of environmental impacts of electric vehicles” project in which these analyses were carried out was funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Reactor Safety.
Market potentials of electric vehicles
In the researchers’ scenario electric vehicles on the German market will hit the one-million mark in 2022. It would then be technically possible to cover two thirds of all journeys with an electrically-powered vehicle. While it is still difficult to cover long distances in battery electric vehicles (which have a maximum range of 160 kilometres), plug-in hybrids can cover long distances like holiday trips without a problem – thanks to their combination of an electrical and a conventional propulsion system.
“Electric vehicles can have a market share of approx. 14 per cent of all vehicles in 2030,” explains Florian Hacker, a researcher at Oeko-Institut who specialises in electric mobility. “In the case of newly registered vehicles, the market share can even reach about 30 per cent. According to our calculations most of these cars are plug-in hybrids.”
Only climate-friendly when driven with additional electricity from renewable energies
To answer the question of how clean electric vehicles are and whether they can make a contribution to climate protection, it is crucial to determine the source of electricity used. Based on analyses conducted by Oeko-Institut, the CO2 emissions of electric vehicles can only be nearly zero when additional renewable energy capacities are implemented in the electricity sector. Only then do electric vehicles cause no emissions. By 2030 electric vehicles can avoid approx. 5.2 million tonnes of CO2 compared to a scenario without electric vehicles. This corresponds to a reduction of approx. six per cent in the total emissions of passenger cars in Germany by 2030.
“Electric vehicles can contribute to achieving climate protection goals,” says Hacker. “But we shouldn’t lose sight of conventional passenger cars. If petrol-powered cars are made significantly more efficient by 2030, they alone can reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of passenger car transport in Germany by 25 per cent.”
Interactions with the electricity market
In 2030 electric mobility brings about an additional electricity demand of approx. 11 terawatt hours, corresponding to approx. two per cent of Germany’s current total electricity consumption. When assessing the potential of electric vehicles to reduce environmental impacts, a key factor is the time of day when they are charged.
The analysis of electricity demand according to different times of day shows that if many electric vehicles are charged at the same time – for example in the evening after the last journey of the day – it can lead to unfavourable additional peaks at times when electricity demand is already high. According to experts at Oeko-Institut, therefore, load management is needed to control when the battery is charged. In order to avoid high demand peaks and the resulting use of expensive peak-load power plants, load management can shift battery charging to more cost-effective time periods when electricity demand is lower or wind power is higher.
However, the use of CO2-intensive, environmentally harmful coal-fired power plants would increase to cover the base load in Germany, particularly at night.
“With load management electric vehicles can be well integrated into the electricity market and profit from surplus wind or solar energy in some situations,” says Charlotte Loreck, a researcher at Oeko-Institut who specialises in the electricity sector. “But the decisive factor in the environmental friendliness of electric vehicles is whether or not additional capacities for renewable energies are established.”
The quantity of additional electricity produced from renewable energies in a year should match the quantity of electricity used by the electric vehicles. However, this does not mean that the electric vehicles have to be directly fed electricity from renewable energy sources. “The vehicle batteries will be charged when wind power is low,” says Loreck. “But as a result the additional renewable energy replaces conventional power generation at other hours of the day. What’s important in terms of the CO2 emissions is the additional renewable energy production overall.”
High acceptance for electric vehicles – methodology and models
In 2020, when purchasing a new car, approx. two thirds of car-buyers would choose a battery electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid. This is a finding of the car purchase simulation carried out within the scope of the Institute for Social-Ecological Research’s survey of approx. 1,500 new car buyers. Researchers at Oeko-Institut combined these results with transport data collected for the “Mobility in Germany” project, which surveyed 77,000 people from 26,000 households about their day-to-day mobility behaviour.
With the help of this data on acceptance and mobility patterns and the involvement of a group of stakeholders, the experts developed a scenario on the market penetration of electric vehicles in Germany for 2030. The effects on the electricity market and the CO2 emissions of battery electric vehicles were subsequently determined using PowerFlex, Oeko-Institut’s electricity market model.
Further information
Oeko-Institut’s brochure “Autos unter Strom”, produced within the scope of the OPTUM project (in German only)
The Oeko-Institut’s background paper on electric mobility
Contact
Florian Hacker
Researcher, Infrastructure & Enterprises Division
Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin office
Phone: +49 30 405085-373
Email: f.hacker@oeko.de
Charlotte Loreck
Researcher, Energy & Climate Division
Oeko-Institut e.V., Berlin office
Phone: +49 30 405085-337
Email: c.loreck@oeko.de
Oeko-Institut is a leading independent European research and consultancy institute working for a sustainable future. Founded in 1977, the institute develops principles and strategies for ways in which the vision of sustainable development can be realised globally, nationally and locally. It has offices in three cities in Germany: Freiburg, Darmstadt and Berlin.
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