Issues to watch out for at COP30 in Belèm

Rainforests under the spotlight of the COP in the Amazon

As the COP Presidency, Brazil has brought the conference to the Amazon to highlight the importance of tropical rainforests in the global climate system and the links between climate change and biodiversity loss. The most important initiative of Brazil in this respect is the proposal for a ‘Tropical Forests Forever Fund’ (TFFF), under which countries will receive annual payments for each hectare of rainforest they preserve. The TFFF thereby aims to establish financial incentives for countries to reduce and ultimately halt deforestation. In contrast to previous initiatives, the fund is not based on donations but targets public and private investors who will receive interest on their investments. A critical question will be whether the fund will be large enough and generate sufficiently high returns on its investments to both repay its investors and significantly fund rainforest nations. Brazil itself has pledged USD 1 billion to the fund and is seeking USD 25 billion from public sponsors and USD 100 billion from private sponsors. A key issue to watch out for at COP30 is whether sufficient countries will make pledges to enable the fund to go ahead.

The gap in climate plans

COP30 is also a critical moment in global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions. In 2025, all countries must submit new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in which they set out their plans and actions to address climate change. In their new NDCs, countries are expected to set climate targets for 2035.

A first issue to watch out for is which countries will have submitted an NDC by the start of the COP. As of 5 November, 78 new NDCs have been submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, including the NDC of the EU. It sets a range of 66.25% to 72.5% for an indicative contribution by 2035. As the upper end of the range of 72.5% corresponds to a linear reduction between 2030 and 2040, the lower end corresponds to a relatively small reduction up to 2035 and may make it more difficult for the EU to implement the remaining reductions, which are required for climate neutrality by 2050.

A second critical question is how much the climate plans will reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and whether they will bring us closer to limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 degree Celsius. The NDC Synthesis report by the UNFCCC Secretariat, published on 28 October 2025, shows that greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 will only be approximately 17 % below the level of 2019 if the currently submitted climate targets are achieved. Alongside the headline targets in NDCs, it will also be important whether developing countries have moved towards setting economy-wide targets for reducing GHG emissions, which are key to lowering global emissions, and whether their targets are conditional on receiving support. China is a notable example in this regard: while its previous NDC covered only carbon dioxide, China announced in September 2025 that its new NDC will cover all greenhouse gases.

Though not a formal agenda item, a key discussion point at COP30 will be the ambition of this year’s NDCs and how the evident ambition gap can be closed.

The climate finance gap

Another topic at COP30 will be following up on the climate finance goal that was agreed at the previous COP. Countries agreed on a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) at COP29. They set a goal of securing at least USD 300 billion per year by 2035 for developing country Parties for climate action, building on a previous goal of USD 100 billion by 2020. Achieving this goal will be challenging, also because of the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement. It will be important that other developed countries increase their contributions and that more countries make contributions.

Moreover, this goal only covers a part of the overall climate-related finance needs of developing countries. At COP29, countries therefore also agreed to work together to enable the scaling up of financing from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035. To achieve this, countries need to explore new flows of climate finance, including private investment, and the redirection of subsidies towards climate-friendly activities. The report of the COP29 and COP30 presidencies under the ‘Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T’ will provide important information on how to bridge the gap in climate finance. It will be presented at a high-level event during the COP.

Measuring progress in adaptation

Since the ways in which countries adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change vary, measuring global progress in this area is challenging. At COP30, it can be expected that a set of indicators will be adopted to help track collective progress on adaptation. While this set of indicators will likely constitute a tangible outcome of the conference, it will remain a challenge to collect and report information that is comparable across countries, and above all, to take the actions needed to respond to a changing climate.

Lorenz Moosmann and Dr. Lambert Schneider work in Oeko-Institut’s Energy and Climate Division in Berlin and have taken part in international climate negotiations for many years. Lambert Schneider is Research Coordinator for International Climate Policy. Lorenz Moosmann has been researching transparency and reporting at EU and international level as a Senior Researcher for several years.

Publications on the COP

Study ‘The COP30 Climate Change Conference’ 

Factsheet ‘The COP30 Climate Change Conference’

Policy Brief „The EU's 2040 climate target – Assessment of the proposal by the EU Council“ (update 7.11.2025)

Policy Brief „The EU's 2040 climate target – Assessment of the proposal by the EU Commission“ (2.7.2025)

Policy brief: Conditions for Using International Carbon Credits towards the EU's 2040 Climate Target

Blog posts on the past negotiations