Efficiency only? An analysis of avoid, shift and improve strategies in EU member states’ long-term mitigation policy

Despite ambitious EU targets, national emission trajectories reported by member states continue to fall short of achieving the necessary reductions. This implementation gap raises the question of what mitigation strategies and instruments member states rely on to meet internationally binding climate targets. To explore this, we scrutinise 1584 implemented, adopted, or planned mitigation policies across the sectors of agriculture, transport, energy consumption, and industry using qualitative content analyses. Our findings reveal substantial discrepancies in the distribution of mitigation strategies. Efficiency improvements dominate EU mitigation efforts, comprising 54 % of proposed measures. In contrast, policies promoting shifts to low-carbon alternatives represent only 14 %, while those avoiding energy or service demand make up just 2 %. Even when considering broader policy mixes that include elements of shifting and reducing final demand, these strategies remain under-represented across all sectors, particularly in industry and agriculture. The remaining share of reported mitigation policies, accounting for 21 %, focus on altering broader regulatory frameworks and incentive structures, underscoring their critical role in EU member states' mitigation efforts. Additionally, we find member states to rely predominantly on economic and regulatory policy instruments, with substantial variation across mitigation strategies and sectors. Our findings carry important policy implications, unveiling EU’s reliance on efficiency-centred approaches to achieve climate targets. Given the implementation gap and the untapped potential of demand-side measures, diversifying mitigation strategies could enhance the EU’s ability to meet legally binding climate targets.