Beyond technology and energy supply. Conceptualising a toolbox for including sufficiency measures in scenario projections

This work gives an overview on findings from a five-years’ sufficiency research project regarding the tools in the box for modelling sufficiency in the German energy system context. We conceptualize sufficiency quantification by distinguishing between demand-side and supply modelling, external quantifications and policy impacts.

We find that most scenario studies do either not include sufficiency actions, or only on a very general level, based on strong assumptions – and very seldom as results from changes to policy frameworks and infrastructures. Supply-side models are little suitable to represent sufficiency, demand-side models are required. In order to capture sufficiency actions, respective sector models need to cover the logics of sufficiency impact chains, which is often not the case and excludes respective quantification. Models can however be developed in this direction and then show significant impacts of sufficiency action in scenarios.