Evaluation of the federal funding programme for climate-friendly commercial vehicles and infrastructure (KsNI)

This project involves a comprehensive evaluation of the German federal funding programme for climate-friendly commercial vehicles and infrastructure (KsNI). The objective is to assess (1) the extent to which the programme's goals have been achieved (effectiveness), (2) whether the observed impacts can be attributed to the funding and are compatible with the EU internal market (impact assessment), and (3) whether the funding has been used efficiently (efficiency analysis).

To this end, eight evaluation questions were developed, supported by 37 indicators. The analysis is based on programme monitoring data provided by the National Organisation for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology (NOW), regular implementation reports from funding recipients, and vehicle registration data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA). Additional data was collected through surveys of recipients and two control groups (non-recipients) as well as interviews with stakeholders, including vehicle manufacturers and programme partners.

Depending on the question and indicator, the evaluation applies descriptive statistics, qualitative content analysis, and a multivariate difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to determine causal relationships—for example, regarding the increase in fleet electrification.

The evaluation focuses in particular on questions related to CO₂ emission reductions in commercial road transport, the causal effects and adequacy of the subsidies, changes in market supply, and the cost-effectiveness of the funding instrument.