Study shows ways to achieve climate neutrality by 2050

The EU's current climate policy measures are not sufficient to achieve the emission targets for 2030 or to ensure climate neutrality by 2050. Although progress in the energy and transport sectors is already leading to falling emissions, industry, buildings and agriculture remain the major problem sectors. This is the conclusion of a study published today by Oeko-Institut and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Environment Agency.

The study is based on comprehensive modelling and compares three scenarios: the EUBase reference scenario with current policy measures and two target scenarios that show ways to achieve greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050: EUTarget and EUSupreme. While the EUTarget scenario relies heavily on technological solutions such as electrification, hydrogen and CO₂ capture, EUSupreme pursues a sustainability-orientated approach with sufficiency, circular economy and lower energy demand. Both scenarios achieve net zero in 2050, but in very different ways.

Current measures: too slow for 2030 and 2050 targets

In the EUBase scenario, EU climate targets are clearly not met. Despite ambitious programmes for the electrification of transport, the use of synthetic fuels and the expansion of renewable energies, emissions from industry, buildings and agriculture remain too high. In 2030, total emissions still amount to around 2,164 million tonnes (Mt) of CO₂ equivalents (CO_₂eq). This means that net emissions will fall by 54 per cent compared to 1990, instead of the planned 55 per cent. In 2050, at 816 Mt CO_₂eq, they are still well above the net-zero target.

Two paths to net zero – with different focuses

EUTarget: The technology-driven scenario achieves climate neutrality by 2050 through the massive use of technology – such as electrification and the expansion of renewable energies, as well as CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) to a limited extent. The LULUCF sink (land use, land use change and forestry) – i.e. the storage capacity of forests, peatlands and other land areas – will grow significantly by 2050. However, it is not sufficient to absorb all excess CO_₂ emissions. In addition, around 28 Mt CO_₂ have to be absorbed and stored using technical solutions.

EUSupreme: The sustainability-orientated scenario focuses on behavioural changes, sufficiency and a strengthened circular economy. Lower energy consumption, reduced resource requirements and a growing natural sink result in the sharpest decline in emissions: to 1,608 Mt CO₂eq in 2030 and 412 Mt CO₂eq in 2040. With a reduction of 130 Mt CO₂eq, net emissions in 2050 even fall below zero, representing an overachievement of the net-zero target.

Contributions of sectors to climate protection

• Energy and transport: Electrification and the use of synthetic fuels lead to large savings, but these will not be sufficient by 2030.
• Industry: The industry sector remains a problem child; without CCS or sufficiency measures, the reduction potential is limited.
• Buildings: Renovation and efficiency improvements are key, with savings of up to 1,800 terawatt hours of final energy possible compared to the reference scenario.
• Agriculture & LULUCF: Reduced livestock farming and more organic farming help to reduce emissions, while natural carbon sinks, for example through afforestation, can be strengthened – which is crucial in the EU Supreme scenario.

Clear political decisions needed for climate protection

The analysis makes clear that with its current measures, the EU will neither achieve its targets for 2030 nor become climate-neutral by 2050. The path to net zero will either necessitate profound technological transformations with corresponding costs or structural and societal changes. Both paths require major investments, coordinated political decisions and decisive action within this decade.

This study was conducted by Oeko-Institut Consult GmbH.

Study ‘Pathways to an EU in 2050 with net-zero GHG emissions’ by Oeko-Institut

Study ‘Projected EU emissions in 2040. A comparison of assumptions and sector results between the EU Impact Assessment 2040 and the UBA Pathways 2050 scenarios’ by Oeko-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI 

Study ‘The EU Taxonomy in modeling. Quantifying the effect of the EU Taxonomy by modelling and an evaluation of scenarios for their EU Taxonomy alignment’ by Oeko-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI