Breaking the gridlock

For years, the mobility transition looked much like the German autobahn just before Easter: everything was at a standstill. But now the gridlock slowly seems to be breaking at last. Projections by the Oeko-Institut point to a downturn in emissions in future – mainly thanks to the EU Green Deal, particularly its fleet targets and combustion engine phase-out from 2035. Researchers from the institute’s Resources and Transport Division are therefore expecting a further and more rapid decline in greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the coming years – but only if the policy framework remains unchanged or if, of course, its level of ambition is raised.

The future trajectory of emissions from the transport sector is underscored by the latest greenhouse gas projection data produced by Oeko-Institut experts in collaboration with M-Five and Fraunhofer ISI on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA). “Granted, they show that the transport sector is likely to miss its reduction targets for 2030 by 169 Mt CO₂eq. But it is also becoming apparent that the long-term emission curve is now very clearly heading downwards at last,” says Peter Kasten, a mobility expert at the Oeko-Institut.

To a large extent, the transport sector currently has EU rules to thank for the downward trend – for the EU has set itself the legally binding target of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Key mechanisms for reaching this target in the transport sector are carbon pricing, the greenhouse gas reduction quota – which requires the oil industry to use a certain percentage of renewables in its fuels – and fleet targets, along with the combustion engine phase-out, mentioned above. From 2035, all new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles registered in the EU must have zero carbon emissions. “With the EU legislation, we have a robust framework for climate action in the transport sector,” says Peter Kasten, who heads the Resources and Transport Division. Indeed, he goes a step further: “In my view, we have already moved past peak emissions in the transport sector. This is partly due to more rapid renewal here compared with industry or the building sector, for example. Most of the passenger car fleet is replaced every 15 years or so.” To keep the transport sector moving in the right direction in the long term, however, the rules should not be contested. “It is not only about taking climate action seriously. It is also about providing a dependable environment for industry and its investments, instead of creating uncertainty with slogans like ‘technology openness’. Continuity is also important to build consumer confidence in electromobility. Anyone clinging to the combustion engine is on a nostalgic trip into the past – that’s evident from the number of e-vehicles, which is clearly increasing worldwide.”

A clear downward trajectory

A downturn in emissions is certainly a good start – but greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045 is not yet within reach. How can it be achieved? In other words, how can we speed up the mobility transition? This was analysed by researchers from the Resources and Transport Division in cooperation with INFRAS in a project titled “Getting the Transport Sector on Track” on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA). “An accelerated transition requires more electrification and a shift to public transport. And for that, in turn, more investment is needed in climate-friendly transport options, as well as taxation that is more consistently aligned with vehicle emissions,” Peter Kasten explains. A mileage-based toll for passenger cars also makes sense in the medium term, he says. The project team further looked at the economic effects of consistent action. “There are positive effects in terms of value added and employment. And a proportion of the additional revenue could go towards easing the burden on vulnerable households, who should also be given more support in switching to climate-friendly mobility.”

Boosting investment

Germany needs to invest in more sustainable transport. “The special fund agreed by the German government is welcome and has an important role to play, but reliable additional investment is required.” The importance of this is also illustrated by the study “Towards a Climate-Neutral Germany”, which was conducted in 2024 by the Oeko-Institut, Prognos, the Wuppertal Institute and the University of Kassel on behalf of Agora Think Tanks. “The good thing about the transport sector is that much of this investment is necessary regardless of the transition and the additional costs of more climate action are not particularly high. The change that is needed here can be initiated with a comparatively small injection of cash,” says Peter Kasten. This is underscored by the study, which shows that more than 85 per cent of the investment projected for climate action in the transport sector by 2045 is necessary anyway. The main objective is therefore to channel the funds towards climate-neutral solutions. “This can be achieved with price-based mechanisms such as a motor vehicle tax that is more strongly aligned with vehicle emissions than at present. Some of the revenue could then be used to fund targeted incentives for low-income households to switch to electric vehicles.” It is essential, he says, to use these and other mechanisms to ensure a socially just mobility transition and to guarantee that everyone shares in the benefits – with options such as discounted public transport tickets for vulnerable households.

More rapid expansion of public transport and safe paths for cyclists and walkers is also crucial for a socially just mobility transition. “However, we shouldn’t forget about rail transport – and this is where the costs are likely to soar. But then again, this is also where we are paying for past omissions,” says Peter Kasten. The project team forecasts that in addition to maintenance costs, the funding requirements will amount to at least 4.6 billion euros per year between 2025 and 2030, rising to at least 6.3 billion euros per year in the subsequent period up to 2045, in order to significantly boost rail transport performance in passenger and freight transport.

Step on the gas!

In other words, in Peter Kasten’s view, policymakers should not be complacent now that the EU Green Deal is in place. Instead, they should ask themselves how they can accelerate the mobility transition in Germany. There are numerous potential points of leverage here. The charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is a case in point. “A key step is to simplify and expedite approval procedures for the charging infrastructure. This is especially important for e-trucks.” In addition, more price transparency at charging stations is required. “When you fill up your car with petrol, you can see when you drive onto the forecourt how much it is going to cost. Drivers of electric vehicles often have to find out this information for themselves, which takes a lot of effort, and there are countless offers that bear no relation to each other. At the very least, driving an electric vehicle should not pose more problems than driving a combustion engine car.”

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Peter Kasten works on climate action and sustainability in transport. A graduate in Energy and Process Engineering, he develops strategies for CO2 reduction in the transport sector and provides advice to policymakers and businesses. He heads the Oeko-Institut’s Resources and Transport Division.