ETC/ACM Technical Paper 2017/13

Analysis of drivers of historic and future ESD emission trends

The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, Decision No 406/2009) establishes national burden sharing targets for EU Member States. It focusses on those categories that are not covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and those that do not relate to Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF). Emissions covered by the ESD contributed to over half of the EU-28 GHG emissions in 2015. This report presents a trend analysis of historic and future anthropogenic GHG emissions for the most significant sectors covered by the ESD. The key drivers for ESD emission reductions are improved energy efficiency in buildings and switching to less carbon intensive fuels, including renewables. These drivers are linked to the greatest reduction in ESD emissions between 1990 and 2035 seen in the residential and commercial sector. However, much faster rates of GHG emission decreases are necessary to achieve an 80% decrease by 2050, even if the 2030 target is met.

The report was prepared on behalf of the European Environment Agency, as partner of the European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate change Mitigation.