@MISC{oei_13666,
ota_publtyp = {Bericht},
oei_publtyp = {Studie},
title = {Getting the balance right - How today’s ETS design choices shape supply, market stability, and the path to 2040 and beyond},
author = {Johanna Cludius and Jakob Graichen},
year = {2026},
language = {en},
url = {https://www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oekodoc/PB_Getting-the-balance-right_Oeko-Institut.pdf},
abstract = {The debate about the ETS reform for the period after 2030 is dominated by the perceived need to increase supply. To this end, the Commission has already proposed to end invalidation of allowances in the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) and there is a push to use the New Entrants Reserve (NER) to co-finance the Industrial Decarbonisation Bank (IDB). In this brief, we show that these two modifications alone would already ensure a sufficient supply of allowances until 2040. If the Linear Reduction Factor (LRF), the parameter defining the cap and therefore supply of allowances, would be changed as well, there is a real risk of a new structural oversupply in the carbon market and the EU missing its 2040 climate target.},
keywords = {Energie & Klimaschutz}
}