Energy-economic modelling: How do climate protection measures take effect?

Quantitative, model-based analyses are necessary to assess and further develop climate protection measures and to compare different scenarios. Policy measures or climate protection targets are incorporated in different scenarios and the economic and ecological impacts are analysed in comparison to a reference development. These analyses enable quantitative observations to be made on emission, economic (output, structure, prices, employment, trade) and technological developments and can lay the foundation for decisions on climate policy. Depending on the question at hand, different model types are applied.

Macro-economic models

Macro-economic models such as computable general equilibrium models (CGE models) cover the overall economy and are used to analyse economic and ecological effects. These models include all sectors of national economies and show the effects on all markets including their interactions with one another. Interaction with the energy markets is thus a key focus of such models. Engineering models Engineering models – so-called “bottom-up models” – are used to analyse different economic sectors that are particularly relevant to energy and climate policy (e.g. the electricity sector). These models calculate the optimal, lowest cost technology mix, on the basis of which climate policy targets can be realised.

Additional models

In additional models data from past years are evaluated to answer specific questions, e.g. for different economic segments or the emissions of particular greenhouse gases. On this basis future developments for GHG emissions can be described using the scenario-based approach.

Energy-economic models in action

Oeko-Institut uses energy-economic models to answer diverse questions. The models used were developed and are continuously expanded and updated by researchers at the institute.

1. ELIAS: The Electricity Investment Analysis Model is a capital cost model for the German electricity sector. It determines what power plant investments are the most low cost under economic framework conditions. In the Policy Scenarios (Politikszenarien) project, the impacts of different climate protection measures on the future power plant fleet and the corresponding CO2 emissions are analysed. ELIAS is also applied to examine the impacts of renewable energies and electric mobility on the power plant fleet.

2. PowerFlex is an electricity market model which calculates the dispatch of power plants, their revenues and the resulting electricity prices. What is special about this model is that it considers the flexibility of electricity supply and demand. It calculates how power plants, storage options and appliances with a flexible electricity demand (e.g. cold storage houses, electric vehicles) should operate to reduce costs and CO2 emissions. This model is applied in different projects and can be linked with the ELIAS investment model (Figure 1).

3. A computable general equilibrium model (CGE model) is currently being developed by researchers at Oeko-Institut. It shows the impacts of climate protection measures in different countries and economic segments on economic development, CO2 emissions and employment. Further, it analyses competition effects and the risks of carbon leakage, i.e. possible displacement effects for different economic segments. A multi-country, macroeconomic analysis and evaluation is of particular interest for international climate policy.

Modelling for policy consultancy and research

Well-founded, transparent and robust quantitative model analyses are an important tool in consultancy and research on energy and climate policy. They generate figures and methods for the evaluation of climate protection measures, which serve as a basis for important decisions and negotiations. They are based on aspects which affect our daily activities – e.g. power consumption when cooking, cooling and heating, on the way to work, in schools, and hospitals – and put their environmental compatibility to the test.

The modelling activities carried out at Oeko-Institut contribute to policy and society being able to make well-founded decisions. We

• help to answer current questions in energy and climate policy;
• apply methodically sound approaches and develop them further;
• use high-quality datasets and indicators;
• conduct sensitivity calculations which support the robustness of results;
• present the results of our analyses in a comprehensible way to the interested public; and
• lead an open discussion of the approaches and results.

• Bookmark:
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
•  
•  Print